Land use change in Baghdad City and assessment of the Jadriyah and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island Important Bird Area (IBA) from 1984 to 2020

: Land use change, particularly the expansion of urban areas and associated human activities at the expense of natural and semi-natural areas, is a major ecological issue in urban areas around the world. Climate change being a very strong additional driver for changing the temperature and habitat in the cities. This also applies to Baghdad, Iraq, where urbanisation and climate change exerts a major pressure on the natural habitats of the city, and thus may affect the ability of city planners to adapt to future climate change scenarios. Here we present evidence of substantial growth in urban areas, increases in temperature, and degradation of natural vegetation within Baghdad city by using Remote Sensing techniques and an assessment for the Jadriyah and Umm Al-Khanazeer site (JUKI). These changes were associated with loss of bird species richness within the area, which was previously the only Important Bird Area (IBA) within the city. A standardised scoring system (following Birdlife International global framework) was used to assess Pressure-State-Response: JUKI site scored 3-5 for pressure (Medium), two for the state (Moderate), and two for the response (Low). Despite the degradation highlighted in Baghdad city, the JUKI site still has 88% intact habitat to support bird trigger species. We conclude that the site urgently needs a detailed management plan to ensure the protection of its habitats and avian fauna, and that the area should be declared as a protected area according to the “IUCN Category IV: Habitat/Species Management Area; to provide a means by which the urban residents may obtain regular contact with nature”, and re-designated JUKI as an IBA site. The study also identifies the most affected areas in the city of Baghdad, which should take the priority of the afforestation efforts and any future restoration campaigns.


Introduction:
Expansion of urbanization and change in the land use is an issue in Baghdad city (the capital of Iraq) that added pressure on vegetation and animal ecology of the city and disturbed the balance between urban areas, natural system, and vegetation 1,2 . Baghdad was established during the Islamic Abbasid era (AD 762) as the capital for the Islamic state. Historical references have described the dense vegetation in Baghdad and its surrounding countryside, along with several species of animals 3,4 . Baghdad was chosen to be the capital of Iraq Kingdom in 1920 (population at the time was 145000) 4 and thereafter the urbanization of the city expanded, and the population increased to reach 784.000 -1,313.000 in 1957 -1958 5 . The steady urbanization expansion continued, and the city was overwhelmed by an influx of people with a population increase from 3,509.000 in 1984 to 8,126.755 in 2018 6 . Despite the importance of the natural areas and vegetations of the city, only one site in Baghdad was recorded as an important bird area (IBA); the Jadriyha and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island (will refer it as JUKI site in this paper) was reported to be the IBA number 015 site in the book of the Important Bird Areas of the Middle East published by Evans in 1994 7 . The JUKI site remained as a natural virgin area with dense vegetation until 1958 when the University of Baghdad campus was constructed on the site and the surrounding lands were sold to the people for private use in the beginning of 1980s 8,9 . The JUKI site was rapidly surveyed by the Iraqi Ministry of Environment (MoEn) and Nature Iraq (NI) from 2005-2011 10 . However, the site was excluded from the IBAs national list of Iraq, updated on the official website and data zone of the BirdLife International in 2013 11 , and was not included in the Iraq's national list of the Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) of 2017 12 .
Due to current climate change circumstances Protecting natural areas, enhancing vegetation, and including green areas inside large urban cities are crucial measures. Removing an important natural area from the IBAs and KBA national list without providing scientific evidence and justification regarding state (condition), pressure (threats), and response (conservation action) is a questionable action. For these reasons, this study was designed to: (i) evaluate the land use degradation in Baghdad City and provide scientific evidence of land degradation, loss of habitat, and changing in the land surface temperature by using remote sensing technique (the oldest satellite image of Baghdad that could be obtained from Landsat dates back to the year 1984); (ii) answer the question whether the JUKI (IBA) site is still providing a suitable and high quality habitat for birds species, By assessing and evaluating the state (condition), pressure (threats), and response (conservation actions) of the site according to the Birdlife International criteria and by using remote sensing techniques (GIS analysis) and doing field bird surveys; (iii) highlight natural vegetation areas that could be managed by the government, and indicate the priority area for future plantation efforts to support the balance between the urban and natural areas in Baghdad.

Methodology: Study area
Baghdad is the capital of Iraq, and it is the largest city in terms of population with approximately 8.13 million people according to the Central Statistics Organization in 2018 6 . Baghdad is located in the middle of the sedimentary plain, where the Tigris River divides it into Karkh (west) and Rusafa (east). The city consists of 27 regions, which in turn are each divided into several districts consisting of residential, road networks, industrial areas and agricultural areas (Fig. 1). Baghdad is located between latitudes 33.10 ° N and 32.04 ° N and longitudes 44.77 ° E and 43.29 ° E at an altitude of 34 meters above sea level. The city area primarily consists of urban areas with high levels of human activity. Major increases in urban area and population density, particularly after 2003, have led to increased environmental pressure on natural systems within Baghdad 13 . According to the classification of Köppen 14 , Baghdad is characterized by a continental climate with hot summers and cold rainy winters. Temperatures vary during the year, with the highest monthly average in August (36.2 o C), and the lowest monthly average in January (10.7 o C), according to data of the Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology. The rainy season begins in December and lasts until April, with an average annual rate of 150 mm, while the rain largely stops between the months of May to September, considered as the dry months accompanied by high evaporation. The city has prevailing north-western/south-eastern winds 15 .

Remote sensing
Remote Sensing was used to evaluate the land use changes in Baghdad City and to provide evidence of urban expansion and loss of natural habitats from 1984 to 2020. Same methodology was used to highlight natural vegetation areas in Baghdad and to assess/evaluate the JUKI Important Bird Area (IBA).
Two satellite images from Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) of Landsat from 24 April 1984 (acquisition time: approximately CCT 9:38 a.m.) and 13 April 2019 (CCT 10:20 a.m.), respectively, were used in this study. These images (path 168/row 37) were used from the USGS Earth Explore Data Centre (http://glovis.usgs.gov) 16 and from multi spectral type. Baghdad administrative map 2005 (1:250,000, prior to adjustment) was used to illustrate the area of interest (AOI) of the study area. One RGB colour composite of QuickBird-2 image (0.61 m, 23 March 2006 and 13/3/2020) and Google Earth pro images were used as training samples in the AOI selection for the Land Use and Lan Cover (LULC) classification. Some processors were performed using ERDAS 14.00.0 and ArcGIS 10.6 software, as shown in Table 1  60 BI, and the land cover change detection process can be found in the Annex.   Pressure (threats), State (condition), and Response (conservation actions) of JUKI site were assessed/evaluated according to the BirdLife guideline and IBAs criteria. A seasonal field bird survey was carried out in 2019 to evaluate the status of avifauna in the JUKI site and provide a list of bird species that are using the habitat of the JUKI. Population size of the bird species was indirectly estimated according to the habitat result that are collected by using the remote sensing technique.

Study area (Bird surveys)
Jadriyah and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island IBA site (study Area for birds identification). The study area is situated in Jadriyah and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island (IBA #15, 472h; in 7 ). Jadria is a district in Baghdad city part of it is the IBA site. The area comprises two portions (i) the eastern bank of Tigris River which resembled by the campus of the University of Baghdad and connected through Jadriyah Bridge (ii) Umm Al-Khanazeer Island (11h) in the western Bank of Tigris River in Baghdad Province in Central Iraq (Fig.1, c and d). The site is a part of the Ecoregion of the Arabian Desert and East Sahero-Arabian Xeric Shrublands.
It is a vast monotonic landscape of permanent freshwater riparian habitats of Tigris River lined with extensive vegetation of common reed Phragmites australis and Typha sp. The site is bordered with patches of cultivated fields and riverine thickets of Populus euphratica with Tamarix sp, along with scattered date palm, eucalyptus, and mulberry trees.

Bird survey and site assessment
The entire area of the JUKI site was systematically surveyed seasonally searching for the resident and migratory avifauna in 2019 to come up with updated list of bird species that are using the habitat available of the IBA site. Point transects inside the University of Baghdad campus and outside were randomly selected and surveyed through direct visual observations using Canon Camera autofocus 75-300mm and binocular 17 . A total of five surveying points were selected (three inside University of Baghdad, one on the Jadriah Bridge, and one in Umm Al Khanazeer Island, see Figure  1d), the observation period at each surveying point lasted 15 minutes (6 surveys/year (one day in two months)). Caution was taken to minimize double counting which may bias the results. The species' descriptive field identification remarks were noted following Porter and Aspinall 2010 18 . Pressure (threats), state (condition), and response (conservation actions) of the Jadriah and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island (JUKI) IBA site were assessed by using remote sensing methods (see above) and the criteria described in the BirdLife global framework version 1.2. 19 .

Land use Change in Baghdad City and Jadriah and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island site
Between 1984 and 2020 we found general increases in artificial areas (built-up) and abandoned land and contrasting decreases in natural habitats (water bodies, dense vegetation, low vegetation) in Baghdad City and JUKI ( Table 2, Figs 3-5, and 6). Also, changing in the land surface temperature of the city Fig.7.   Despite the decrease in the birds species richness from 57 species (listed in the surveys of 2005-2011) to 47 species in the surveys of this study 2019 (17.54% decline in the total number of the bird species) the area still has 88.49% (see Table  6) potential remaining suitable habitat for the population of the trigger bird species, which indicated 11.51% estimated decrease in the species richness.  Table 4 highlights the overall assessment scores of the JUKI site. The evidence used to derive these assessment scores of the pressure, state, and response are highlighted in the Tables 5-7 following 19 . The total assessment score of the state (condition) in the Jadriyah district and the JUKI site (IBA) was two, which is 'moderate' according to the BirdLife International assessment framework 19 . Total potential percentage of the remaining habitat in Jadriah district was 43.05% in 2019, while the analysis of the satellite image showed 88% (see Table 6) of the potential remaining habitat for bird species in JUKI site in 2020 (analysis focused on the IBA site only in 2020) including vegetation, water body, and abandoned Land. Population of the trigger species is indirectly estimated by calculating the potential habitat remaining in JUKI site in 2020. Response by authority was evaluated as low (scored 2 according to the BirdLife global framework 19 ) as there was no formal designation for conservation, no management plan, and no Implementation of conservation actions allocated for the IBA site.   .7)

(Score 1)
Slow deterioration (1-10% over 10 years or 3 generations) (Score 1) Total score of the threat 3 5 Overall score of the Pressure   Summed action scores IBA action status score & its description (score 2 = low response).

Discussion
Our study has provided evidence about the urban expansion of Baghdad city between 1984 and 2019 and the JUKI site in 2020. The urban expansion has impacted negatively on the extent of natural habitats and a decline in the richness of bird species recorded. This urban expansion and consequent degradation of vegetation was also indicated by several earlier studies 13,14,15 . Climate change is becoming a strong driver of raising temperature in Iraq 20, 21 . The urban expansion, land degradation, and habitat loss have added more pressure on Baghdad and are likely to be a driver of increases in the mean of temperature in the city 22 that decreased in the quality of life of its citizens 23 . Despite the challenges of the urban expansion, increase of the temperature, and the lack of protected areas and vegetation in Baghdad, no governmental actions have so far followed. One of the clear examples of ignoring the mentioned problem is excluding the Jadriyah and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island site (IBA) from the updated list of Iraq's IBAs that done by the Ministry of Environment and Nature Iraq (surveys from 2005 -2011) and from the IBAs list of the BirdLife International database 11 without providing or publishing scientific evidence or IBAs evaluation and trend reports. In addition, the area was not included without a clear justification in the most updated national reference, which is the Key Biodiversity Areas book (KBAs) that is published by Nature Iraq and MoEn in 2017 12 and considered as one of the most important references for Iraq's KBAs.
Our study is supporting the previous monitoring results of the JUKI site 24,7,12 . However,  Turdoides altirostris). Moreover, the surveys highlighted 57 bird species in which Marbled Duck indicated as vulnerable breeding species (one of four breeding Sahara-Sindian Desert biomerestricted species), the endemic race of Little Grebe Tachybaptus ruficollis iraquensis occurred, as did six individual African Darter Anhinga rufa and a breeding record of the Grey Hypocolius Hypocolius ampelinus were recorded. However, the JUKI site was not included as a KBA site 12 . Climate change and urbanization were both included as pressures that threaten the JUKI area. Timing of the threats, scope of threats, and severity of the threats were measured, and the pressure was scored as 'moderate' (the score is 3-5 according to the BirdLife IBAs global framework 19 ). The scope of climate change threat was analysed based on the expert judgment and from related work. However, a more detailed study regarding the impact of climate change on the bird species would provide stronger supporting evidence although it is clear that temperature have increased across Iraq as a whole in recent decades 20 .
The severity of the urbanization threat scored 1 as a slow deterioration (1-10% over 10 years or 3 generations), the decision of the scoring was taken because the University of Baghdad (which is part of the IBA) and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island are limited areas for public use. The IBA site is protected indirectly [University of Baghdad campus is used from 8am to 3pm daily and then the movement is very restricted after 3pm inside the campus; Umm Al Khanazeer is closed and limited for public use]. The urbanization impact happened between 1984 and 2020 and being stable (future changing is limited). The areas nearby the campus of Baghdad University include the president's palaces and part of the International Green Zone which are all encompassed within the IBA site. The area has a strong security protection, which also helped to make the JUKI continuing to provide safe shelters for bird species and supporting the stabilization of the IBA site (stopping of the urbanization inside the IBA area). Trends of the pressure, state, and response requires data from several years of monitoring to help plotting or scoring the mean of the trend 19 . Our results provide a baseline for future assessment and monitoring programmes that could plot and calculate the trend of JUKI site. Trends reports should provide a clear image about the negative or the positive temporal changes and status of the IBA site and could be calculated by comparing assessment scores of year two and year one as an example (assessment score of year 2 -assessment score of year 1). Results and evidence of our study could be considered as data for year one that could open the door for future monitoring. Despite the habitat degradation highlighted by this study we recommend adopting a monitoring programme by the government to calculate the trend of JUKI site. This will help to review the decision of deleting the JUKI site from the national IBAs list since the site is still providing a good shelter and habitat for the key bird species.
Due to climate change impact; maintain, conserve, restore species and habitats in the urban cities is a crucial action at global level. Our study provides strong evidence of degradation in vegetation across Baghdad city from 1984 -2019. Areas that have good current levels in vegetation density include the bank of the Tigress River inside Baghdad and the areas in the North and west of the city. The Eastern part of Baghdad was indicated as the most degraded area with high percentage lacking in vegetation. This part of the city requires an urgent action by the government to make it a priority area for enhancing vegetation and for tree planting measures. Actions are important to reverse the current bad situation of the city and to return the balance between vegetation, urban, and natural areas in Baghdad. Nature based solutions, establishing national parks and protected areas are important actions that should be taken in the urban cities to tackle climate change and reduce pressure on the bird species. JUKI as an IBA allocated in the heart of an urban city could be a good potential area to be protected according to the IUCN Category IV: Habitat/Species Management Area "Protected areas aiming to protect particular species or habitats and management reflects this priority". The primary objective of establishing a protected area under category IV is to maintain, conserve and restore species and habitats. In addition, to protect vegetation or other biological features through management plans, to protect degraded habitats as components of landscape-scale conservation strategies, and to develop public education and appreciation of the species and/or habitats concerned. The most important objective that support the JUKI site is to provide a means by which the urban residents may obtain regular contact with nature 25 . Resilience thinking at the political, social, and biological levels are required and crucial to maintaining protected areas and enhancing their performance and vital functions in a rapidly changing climate and world 26 .

Conclusions:
The urban expansion, land degradation, and habitat loss have added more pressure on Baghdad and are likely to be a driver of increases in the mean of temperature in the city and a decrease in the quality of life of its citizens. Climate change and urbanization were both indicated as pressures that threaten the Jadriyha and Umm Al-Khanazeer Island (IBA) site. The pressure and state were scored as moderate with law response from the local authority. Thus, the JUKI site urgently needs a detailed management plan to ensure the protection of its habitats and avian fauna, and that the area should be declared as a protected area according to the "IUCN Category IV: Habitat/Species Management Area; to provide a means by which the urban residents may obtain regular contact with nature", and re-designated JUKI as an IBA site. The study also identifies areas that have good current levels in vegetation density include the bank of the Tigress River inside Baghdad and the areas in the North and west of the city. The Eastern part of Baghdad was indicated as the most degraded area with high percentage of lacking in the vegetation. This part of the city requires an urgent action by the government to make it a priority area for enhancing vegetation, tree planting measures, afforestation efforts, and any future restoration campaigns. samples and divided into groups based on the spectral value of each of the units, depending on many statistical techniques provided by ERDAS 14.00.0. in the all study areas. The training samples, as a polygon painted of areas of interest as representative for each class, were digitized on images depending on visual interpretation and prior knowledge. More than 150 training samples were selected for evaluation of each LULC type. Accuracy assessment of LULC classification was processed by ERDAS 14.00.0 in preparing an Error Matrix by selecting 120 random test points. We used the QuickBird-2 (0.61 m) and Google Earth pro images to select training samples of AOIs for every LULC class. The LULC of Baghdad was categorized into five classes: Dense Vegetation (DV), Low Vegetation (LV), Abandoned Land (AL), Built-up Land (BL), and Water Bodies (WB), in addition to other unclassified lands. The results of testing the accuracy of classification for each land type are shown in Table 3).